US markets fell last week after General Electric's disappointing results increased expectations the economy is falling into recession. Stocks from Capital Goods, Banks and Cons. Durables were under pressure while Energy stocks managed to close broadly flat wow. On a technical point of view, even though a further consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited. After that, an uptrend resumption remains our favoured view.
European markets followed Wall Street's pessimism at the end of the week. EURUSD still trades close to its historical highs. Stocks in the Insurance, Health Care and Retailing underperformed whereas shares in the Basic Resources and Oil & Gas sectors performed the best against the Euro Stoxx 50. Technically, even if a limited further consolidation is likely in the early stage of the week, an upturn should be seen then.
Euro/dollar : the euro is consolidating after its new record high at $1.5904 on March 17. Lower commodity prices are pushing the green back higher. The medium term upside trend remains intact, supports for a bounce stand at 1.5380 (rising 20d moving average) then 1.5150 and 1.5000.
Dollar/yen : the dollar bounced against the yen to 99.57 from a March 17 low at 95.78. Above 100.60 look for 102.50 and 104.00. The risk for now remains for a retest of the lows.
Company Reviews:
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Johnson and Johnson (USD 66 ; 0.41% ; JNJ ; JNJ.N)
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On Tuesday, Johnson & Johnson may unveil 1Q EPS of $1.19 ($1.16 a year ago) on sales of $15.7bln ($15bln). Recently, the Co's Japanese unit, Janssen Pharmaceutical announced a 14% rise in FY07 sales, helped by the schizophrenia treatment, Risperdal. Last week, the Co submitted a Premarket Approval application with the US's FDA for its adjustable gastric band to treat morbid obesity. From a technical point view, the stock continued to rebound in the past two weeks, while a ST consolidation should be expected before a further bounce.
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Tesco (GBp 387.75 ; -4.2% ; TSCO ; TSCO.L)
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On the same day, Tesco from United Kingdom may announce 2Q pre-tax profit of £1.4bln on revenues of £23.7bln. Nearly two weeks before, the Co delayed its expansion plan of Fresh & Easy stores in the US for 3mths to leave some time to make the improvements about consumer services. As consumer spending is slowing down in the UK, the Co eyes on the overseas market for its further growth, besides, it also plans to open stores in Russia. Technically, the stock outperforms compared with the BE500 Food Retail Index.
Google (USD 457.45 ; -2.9% ; GOOG ; GOOG.O)
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On Thursday, Google is expected to report 1Q EPS of $4.5 compared to $3.18 a year earlier. Recently, Google allowed software developers to run their Web applications on its technology infrastructure for free to enhance competition of providing the computing and network parts to power Web services. As the Co achieved 99% of $16.6bln revenues from online ads last year and it planned to seek new sources of revenues to complete with Microsoft.
Nokia (EUR 20.58 ; -4.41% ; NOK1V ; NOK1V.HE)
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On the same day, Nokia is scheduled to deliver 1Q net income of E1.4bln (E979m a year earlier) on revenues of E12.8bln (E11.7bln). Separately, the Co agreed a E200m social plan with unions on a closure of a plan in Germany. Earlier, Nokia revealed new products at the Growing Together 2008 conference to boost sales in emerging markets. Last week, the Co and 2 Swiss educational establishments announced to open a research unit in Lausanne to develop Internet's services on mobiles. In the short term, the stock is consolidating after a strong rebound. We can expect a ST pause before further upside.
Citigroup (USD 23.36 ; -2.99% ; C ; C.N)
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On Friday, Citigroup may unveil 1Q LPS of $0.9 compared to an EPS of $1.18 a year ago. Last week, the Co was in talks to sell $12bln of loans at a loss to Apollo Management. Besides, Citigroup announced an organisation structure in which its consumer group will be split into two businesses: Consumer Banking and Global Cards. But the financial market is expected to report more subprime losses in 1Q results. The stock is under pressure and holding by its 50D MA.
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Selection of those events which may affect the stock prices of international Large Caps
| CORPORATE CALENDAR April 14th - April 18th |
| Date |
Market |
Company |
Event |
| |
| Monday, April 14th |
| |
NE |
Philips Electronics |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Eaton Corp |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
WW Grainger |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Charles Schwab |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
| Tuesday, April 15th |
| |
UK |
Tesco |
annual results |
| |
UK |
SABMiller |
annual results |
| |
US |
Johnson and Johnson |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
US Bancorp |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Bear Stearns Companies |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Intel |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
| Wednesday, April 16th |
| |
US |
IBM |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
JP Morgan Chase |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Coca Cola |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Wells Fargo and Company |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Abbott Laboratories |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Illinois Tool Works |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
| Thursday, April 17th |
| |
US |
Pfizer |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
United Technologies |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Bank of New York Mellon |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Merrill Lynch |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Baxter International |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Google |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
| Friday, April 18th |
| |
US |
Citigroup |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Schlumberger |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Wachovia |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Caterpillar |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Honeywell |
1st-Quarter results |
| |
US |
Xerox |
1st-Quarter results |
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| ECONOMIC CALENDAR (CET) April 14th - April 18th |
| Date |
Market |
Economic data |
Period |
Expected |
Last |
| |
| Monday, April 14th |
| 10:30:00 |
UK |
PPI - Input (MoM) |
MAR |
1.6% |
1.7% |
| 10:30:00 |
UK |
PPI - Output (MoM) |
MAR |
0.5% |
0.3% |
| 11:00:00 |
EC |
Euro-Zone: Industrial Production (MoM) |
FEB |
0.2% |
0.6% |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Retail Sales |
MAR |
0.1% |
-0.6% |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Retail Sales les Autos |
MAR |
0.3% |
-0.2% |
| 16:00:00 |
US |
Business Inventories |
FEB |
0.5% |
0.8% |
| |
| Tuesday, April 15th |
| 11:00:00 |
GE |
Zew Survey (Econ. Sentiment) |
APR |
-29.4 |
-32 |
| 11:00:00 |
GE |
Zew Survey (Current Situation) |
APR |
NA |
32.1 |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
MAR |
0.7% |
0.3% |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
PPI - Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
MAR |
0.2% |
0.5% |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Empire Manufacturing |
APR |
-16.06 |
-22.23 |
| 19:00:00 |
US |
NAHB Housing Market |
APR |
20 |
20 |
| |
| Wednesday, April 16th |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Consumer Price Index (MoM) |
MAR |
0.3% |
0% |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Housing Starts (Thsd) |
MAR |
1018 |
1065 |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Bulding Permits (Thsd) |
MAR |
973 |
984 |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
CPI - Ex Food & Energy (MoM) |
MAR |
0.2% |
0% |
| 15:15:00 |
US |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
MAR |
-0.1% |
-0.5% |
| 15:15:00 |
US |
Industrial Capacity Utilization |
MAR |
80.4% |
80.4% |
| |
| Thursday, April 17th |
| 11:00:00 |
EC |
Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln) |
FEB |
NA |
-10700 |
| 11:00:00 |
EC |
Euro-Zone: Trade Balance (Bln) (MoM) |
FEB |
NA |
-10700 |
| 14:30:00 |
US |
Initial Jobless Claims (Thsd) |
W14 |
NA |
357 |
| 16:00:00 |
US |
Leading Indicators |
MAR |
0.1% |
-0.3% |
| 16:00:00 |
US |
Philadelphia Fed. |
APR |
-14.6 |
-17.4 |
| |
| Friday, April 18th |
| 08:00:00 |
GE |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
MAR |
0.5% |
0.7% |
| 10:30:00 |
UK |
Public Sector Net Borrowing (Bln) |
MAR |
NA |
2670 |
| 10:30:00 |
UK |
M4 Money Supply (MoM) |
MAR |
NA |
0.2% |
| 10:30:00 |
UK |
Public Finances (PSNCR) (Bln) |
MAR |
NA |
2897 |
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